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The Great Recession 2.0 is unfolding before our very eyes. It is still in its early phase. But dynamics have been set in motion that are not easily stopped, or even slowed. If the virus effect were resolved by early summer—as some politicians wishfully believe—the economic dynamics set in motion would still continue. The US and global economies have been seriously ‘wounded’ and will not recover easily or soon. Those who believe it will be a ‘V-shape’ recovery are deluding themselves. Economists among them should know better but are among the most confused. They only need to look at historical parallels to convince themselves otherwise.
Origins & Emergence of the 2020 Great Recession in the US Economy
The historical situation of low interest rates after the Fed's response to the 2001 crisis alongside with huge foreign money inflow to the US are presented as the historical context in which subprime lending and financial instruments like CDOs and CDS evolved. Then those instruments as well as the concept of leverage are explained briefly.
The Crisis of Credit Visualized
The plumbing of the financial system is coming under strain like never before. On this week’s podcast, we speak with two legendary experts on how the money system works: Zoltan Pozsar of Credit Suisse and Perry Mehrling of the Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies. They explain the extreme level of stress we’re seeing, what the Fed has done to alleviate, what more needs to be done, and what the post-crisis future may look like.
The Historic Crisis Of Financial Market Plumbing
Following an unprecedented economic boom fed by foreign investment, the Russian Revolution triggered the worst sovereign default in history. Bankers and Bolsheviks tells the dramatic story of this boom and bust, chronicling the forgotten experiences of leading financiers of the age.
Bankers and Bolsheviks
Florian Kern replies to Zoltan Pozsar's analysis about the effects of the war in Ukraine on the global financial order and refutes the latter's prognosis of the demise of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency
Why the war in Ukraine does not jeopardise the dollar's reserve currency status
In parallel to rising inflation numbers, the concept of profit inflation has clearly risen to prominence in recent years. But what is it exactly? This dossier aims not only to collect the most important publications on profit inflation but also intends to map out the development of the discourse and the different positions within the debate.
Profit Inflation: Mapping the debate
It is perhaps fitting that the seriousness of the coronavirus threat hit most of the Western world around the Ides of March, the traditional day of reckoning of outstanding debts in Ancient Rome. After all, problems and imbalances have accumulated in the Western capitalist system over four decades, ostensibly since it took the neoliberal road out of the 1970s crisis and kept going along it, heedless of the crises and problems it led to.
The Unexpected Reckoning: Coronavirus and Capitalism
The world has seen the emergence of a rather different system of international lender of last resort organized as a network of central bank liquidity swap lines largely limited to the core countries of the Global North In this system central banks swap their own currency for dollars which they …
“Where’s My Swap Line?”: A Money View of International Lender of Last Resort
With the onset of an economic crisis that has been universally acknowledged since the end of March, two main questions arise: To what extent is the corona pandemic the starting point (or even the cause) of this crisis? And secondly: can the aid programmes that have been adopted prevent a deep and prolonged recession?
Economic crisis only because of the Corona pandemic?
Mit dem seit Ende März allseits konstatierten Beginn einer Wirtschaftskrise stellen sich vorrangig zwei Fragen: Inwieweit ist die Corona-Pandemie der Ausgangspunkt (oder gar die Ursache) dieser Krise? Und zweitens: Kann mit den beschlossenen Hilfsprogrammen eine tiefgreifende, langanhaltende Rezession verhindert werden?
Wirtschaftskrise nur wegen Corona-Pandemie?
Es ist immer noch zweifelhaft, ob Ökonom*innen mit ihrem Instrumentarium die nächste Wirtschaftskrise vorhersagen können.
Als erster Grund ist dafür der nicht-systemische Status von Krisen in Mainstream-Theorien zu nennen. Zweifelsohne entwickeln empirisch arbeitende Makroökonomen Warn-Indikatoren für Finanzkrisen (Schularick und Taylor 2012), es gibt auch makroökonomsiche Modelle, die Krisendynamiken aufgreifen (Kumhof et al. 2015) und Debatten im Mainstream der VWL über den richtigen Umgang mit der Mathematik (Romer ABC).
Stickeraktion: Wann kommt die nächste Krise, Herr Professor*?
This is an overview of (possibly transformative) proposals to address the economic consequences of the corona crisis
Overview of proposals to combat the economic consequences of the Corona crisis
Die internationale makrofinanzielle Architektur erlitt im März 2020 einen Schock: Nachdem globale Lieferketten geschlossen wurden, froren Offshore Geldmärkte ein. Die wichtigen Zentralbanken reagierten schnell und beliehen sich gegenseitig mit Währung.
Zentralbankkooperation funktioniert – für manche
One method of economic modelling that has become increasingly popular in academia, government and the private sector is Agent Based Models, or ABM. These simulate the actions and interactions of thousands or even millions of people to try to understand the economy – for this reason ABM was once described to me as being “like Sim City without the graphics”. One advantage of ABM is that it is flexible, since you can choose how many agents there are (an agent just means some kind of 'economic decision maker' like a firm, consumer, worker or government); how they behave (do they use complicated or simple rules to make decisions?); as well as the environment they act in, then just run the simulation and see what happens as they interact over time.
Agents, agents everywhere
The Covid-19 pandemic has laid bare the deep structural rifts in modern capitalist economies. It has exposed and exacerbated the long-lasting systemic inequalities in income, wealth, healthcare, housing, and other aspects of economic success across a variety of dimensions including class, gender, race, regions, and nations. This workshop explores the causes of economic inequality in contemporary capitalist economies and its consequences for the economy and society in the post-pandemic reality, as well as what steps can be taken to alleviate economic inequality in the future. Drawing from a variety of theoretical and interdisciplinary insights, the workshop encourages you to reflect on your personal experiences of inequality and aims to challenge the way in which the issue is typically approached in economics.
Inequality in the Post-pandemic Era
Dies ist eine Kooperationsveranstaltung zwischen Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung, Finanzwende Recherche und der Universität Witten-Herdecke.
Mit:
- Joscha Wullweber, Heisenberg-Professor für Politische Ökonomie, Transformation und Nachhaltigkeit an der Universität Witten-Herdecke
- Rainer Voss, Ex-Investmentbanker und Finanzwende-Fellow
- Ulrike Roy, Abteilungsleiterin, Deutsche Bundesbank
Begrüßung und Moderation: Jörg Haas, Referent Internationale Politik, Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung
Buchvorstellung: Zentralbankkapitalismus
This episode from Odd Lost podcast with financial analyst Zoltan Pozsar features a discussion on the potential long-term financial effects of the Ukraine-Crisis on dollar and the global currency system centered around it.
Zoltan Pozsar on Russia, Gold, and a Turning Point for the U.S. Dollar
Fabian Georgi analyses how migration and borders are connected to capitalism.
Recruiting skilled labour, while closing borders? The connection between migration, border regimes and capitalism
In dem Text gibt Maria Kader einen Überblick über die Krisenpolitik der EZB in den Krisen der vergangenen Jahre. Sie stellt die ergriffenen Maßnahmen, ihre Wirkungen und ihre Schatteseiten vor.
Die Europäische Zentralbank in der Krisenpolitik – Maßnahmen, Wirkungen, Schattenseiten
Joscha Wullweber steigt in den Maschinenraum des modernen Kapitalismus hinab diskutiert die neuen Instrumente der Zentralbanken und erklärt auf welch komplexe Weise Staat und Finanzmarkt heute verschränkt sind Dabei nimmt er auch das Schattenbankensystem unter die Lupe von dem die globale Finanzkrise ausging und das dennoch immer bedeutender wird Ein …
Zentralbankkapitalismus
Bei der feministischen Ökonomie geht es darum, den unbezahlten Teil der Ökonomie sichtbar zu machen und die Geschlechterblindheit von ökonomischen Prozessen aufzudecken. Entstanden ist diese Theorierichtung in den 1960er Jahren, wobei die Wurzeln bis ins 19 Jahrhundert zurück reichen. Zu Beginn setzten sich die Feministen und Feministinnen vor allem für das Erreichen des Frauenwahlrechtes, für den Zugang zur Bildung und der Abschaffung der Vernunftehe ein. Die Gleichberechtigung von Mann und Frau war in der zweiten Welle des Feminismus zu finden. Bis heute gibt es zwischen Männern und Frauen Unterschiede, welche durch den Feminismus versucht werden aufzudecken und zu beseitigen. Zum Beispiel die Care-Arbeit, den Gender-Wage-Gap, keine Berücksichtigung in ökonomischen Modellen, etc.
Feministische Ökonomie
This essay suggests to bring together two aspects of economic thought which so far have developed largely separately: degrowth and feminist economics. In this strive, the concept of care work and its role in feminist economics will be introduced and the downsides of the commodification of care work will be discussed. Subsequently, contributions to the discussion on the (re)valuation of care work will be taken into account.
Who cares? A convergence of feminist economics and degrowth
Feminist economics focuses on the interdependencies of gender relations and the economy. Care work and the partly non-market mediated reproduction sphere are particularly emphasised by feminist economics.
Feminist Economics
Der Fokus der feministische Ökonomik liegt auf dem wechselseitigen Zusammenhang von Geschlechterverhältnissen und Ökonomie. Sie rückt insbesondere Care und die teils nicht marktvermittelte Reproduktionssphäre in das Blickfeld.
Feministische Ökonomik
The novel coronavirus (Covid-19) is rapidly spreading around the world. The real economy is simultaneously hit by a supply shock and a demand shock by the spread of coronavirus. Such a twin shock is a rare phenomenon in recent economic history.
How to Manage the Economic Fallout of the Coronavirus
Silvia Federici outlines the content of her book „Caliban and the Witch - Women, the Body and Primitive Accumulation“. Departing from a critique of the Marxist blindspot on reproductive labour, Federici aims at researching the historical process by which the exploitation of women and the construction of the unproductive housewife has been established. Federici points to the transition from the feudal to the capitalist mode of production and explains how the gender specific prosecution (witch hunt) was linked to necessity of control over bodies and the sexuality in the great transformation. Federici also presents arguments why this research is highly relevant for the analysis of women's situation in current capitalism.
Caliban and the Witch
The podcast is an interview of Silvia Federici by David Denvir. It is centred around her book 'Caliban and the Witch - Women, the Body and Primitive Accumulation', but they also draw lines to contemporary issues and political struggles. Federici analyses the emergence of capitalism through a radical Feminist-Marxist lens.
Silvia Federici on Women and Capitalism
Silvia Federici illustrates the potential of the concept of the commons as way of resistance and reorganization of the society in times of social injustice and ecological crisis. Amongst others, she outlines the role of women in the commons movement.
Federici explains why she regards the theory of the tragedy of the commons as unfounded and why she considers Marx's concept of primitive accumulation as still appropriate to describe current events of deprivation, such as land grabbing.
The Struggle for the Commons
Wie könnte eine ganzheitliche Theorie des Kapitalismus aussehen? Diese Einführung in die Social Reproduction Theory (SRT) kann helfen, die Verwobenheit von Produktionsverhältnissen und Unterdrückungsmechanismen im Kapitalismus zu analysieren und zu verstehen.
Social Reproduction Theory: Ein neuer Ansatz der feministischen Ökonomik?
Caliban und die Hexe ist eine Geschichte des weiblichen wie auch des kolonialisierten Körpers während des Übergangs zum Kapitalismus. Ausgehend von den Bauernaufständen des späten Mittelalters und dem Aufstieg der mechanischen Philosophie untersucht Federici die kapitalistische Rationalisierung der gesellschaftlichen Reproduktion.
Caliban und die Hexe
In this essay the authors take a look at how welfare could be provided in a degrowth society.
Bidding farewell to growth: How to provide welfare in a degrowth society
This Blog Post describes the U.S. federal reserve money system from the perspective of the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Therefore it presents a theory of money creation, gives simple examples how this influences the economy and the historical process of why the monetary system of the US has developed this way.
An Introduction in the Federal Reserve Money system
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