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How do people make decisions? There is a class of models in psychology which seek to answer this question but have received scant attention in economics despite some clear empirical successes. In a previous post I discussed one of these, Decision by Sampling, and this post will look at another: the so-called Fast and Frugal heuristics pioneered by the German psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer. Here the individual seeks out sufficient information to make a reasonable decision. They are ‘fast’ because they do not require massive computational effort to make a decision so can be done in seconds, and they are ‘frugal’ because they use as little information as possible to make the decision effectively.
Bounded Rationality: the Case of ‘Fast and Frugal’ Heuristics
Michael Kalecki famously remarked “I have found out what economics is; it is the science of confusing stocks with flows”. Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC) models were developed precisely to address this kind of confusion. The basic intuition of SFC models is that the economy is built up as a set of intersecting balance sheets, where transactions between entities are called flows and the value of the assets/liabilities they hold are called stocks. Wages are a flow; bank deposits are a stock, and confusing the two directly is a category error. In this edition of the pluralist showcase I will first describe the logic of SFC models – which is worth exploring in depth – before discussing empirical calibration and applications of the models. Warning that there is a little more maths in this post than usual (i.e. some), but you should be able to skip those parts and still easily get the picture.
Stock Flow Consistent Macroeconomics
How did the coronavirus almost bring down the Global Financial System? What effects does monetary policy have on inequality? What role do Central Banks have in the social-ecological transformation? How could Central Banks tackle climate change? What is Central Bank Digital Currency?
Next Generation Central Banking
Fighting Neoliberalism with Keynes & Minsky? Riccardo Bellofiore proposes to revise the insights of Minsky's financial instability hypothesis, combining it with the Keynesian theory of the monetary circuit to answer many questions in modern economy.
Fighting Neoliberalism with Keynes & Minsky?
The need for the movement Black Lives Matter and the tragic events that preceded it are the clear manifestation of the problem of discrimination today, which we all intuitively perceive as a poignant socio-economic question of our times.
Economics of Discrimination - A CBD Perspective
Markets are the focus in modern economics: when they work, when they don’t and what we can or can’t do about it. There are many ways to study markets and how we do so will inevitably affect our conclusions about them, including policy recommendations which can influence governments and other major organisations. Pluralism can be a vital corrective to enacting real policies based on only one perspective and a plethora of approaches provide alternatives to the canonical view. Although they have differing implications, these approaches share the idea that we should take a historical approach, analysing markets on a case-by-case basis; and they share a faith in the power of both individuals and collectives to overcome the problems encountered when organising economic activity.
Markets, How Do They Work?
Firms are the primary places where economic activity takes place in modern capitalist economies: they are where most stuff is produced; where many of us spend 40 hours a week; and where big decisions are made about how to allocate resources. Establishing how they work is hugely important because it helps us to understand patterns of production and consumption, including how firms will react to changes in economic conditions and policy. And a well-established literature – led by post-Keynesians and institutionalists – holds that the best way to determine how firms work is to…wait for it...ask firms how they work. This a clearly sensible proposition that is contested in economics for some reason, but we’ll ignore the controversy here and just explore the theory that springs from this approach.
The ‘How Firms Work’ Approach to How Firms Work
The historian Nicholas Mulder talks about the Western sanctions against Russia in the context of the Ukraine Crisis. He explains that the current sanctions are unprecedented in terms of size, speed and scope, expected consequences as well as potential drawbacks and problems.
Can Sanctions Stop Russia?
In this article, Hannah Ritchie presents the data we need to understand the scale of their contribution, and which countries are most reliant on Ukraine for their food supplies.
How could the war in Ukraine impact global food supplies?
So, what does racism have to do with our 21st century economic system? How can we understand institutions who uphold racism while claiming to value diversity and inclusion? And what does it mean to truly be anti-racist?
New Economics Podcast: Why antiracism means anticapitalism
Macroeconomics 101 by the Pan African Feminist Political Economy Collective NAWI explains in an accessible way, why macroeconomics matters in our daily lives.
Macroeconomics 101
How do we transform societal structures and pave the way to economic democracy?
Solidarity Economics
How countries achieve long-term GDP growth is up there with the most important topics in economics. As Nobel Laureate Robert Lucas put it “the consequences for human welfare involved in questions like these are simply staggering: once one starts to think about them, it is hard to think about anything else.” Ricardo Hausmann et al take a refreshing approach to this question in their Atlas of Economic Complexity. They argue a country’s growth depends on the complexity of its economy: it must have a diverse economy which produces a wide variety of products, including ones that cannot be produced much elsewhere. The Atlas goes into detail on exactly what complexity means, how it fits the data, and what this implies for development. Below I will offer a summary of their arguments, including some cool data visualisations.
GDP Growth: It’s Complicated
What influence do changes in tax policy or state decisions on expenditure have on economic growth? For decades, this question has been controversially debated.
What is the fiscal multiplier and why is it so controversial?
IS-LM is perhaps the prime example of `cognitive dissonance' in economics, and is problematic to many economists. On the one hand, the IS-LM model is still taught by many academic economists or they use it to derive the AD-AS approach. On the other hand, the same economists realize the limitations of the basic IS-LM model and would not now use it for policy analysis, as they did in the past. The distinction between pedagogical and analytical efficacy is made by all the authors in this volume regarding the IS-LM model.
IS-LM and Modern Macroeconomics
The human imprint on the biosphere has become so pronounced in recent years that there has been talk of a new geological era, the 'Anthropocene'.
Towards an Integrated Paradigm in Heterodox Economics
The world of economics is changing. Years of turmoil in the global economy mean that nothing will ever be quite the same again. This is the starting point and theme of this radically revised Economist books classic.
The Economist: Economics 4th edition
In the course Sociology and Socialism, students engage with classical theories of socialism as well as their applications in a variety of historical and international contexts. Staunchly interdisciplinary, the course utilizes expertise in philosophy, history, economics, sociology, anthropology and political theory.
Socialism and Sociology
The most successful multialternative theories of decision making assume that people consider individual aspects of a choice and proceed via a process of elimination. Amos Tversky was one of the pioneers of this field, but modern decision theorists – most notably Neil Stewart – have moved things forward. At the current stage the theories are able to explain a number of strictly ‘irrational’ but reasonable quirks of human decision making, including various heuristics and biases. Not only this, but eye movements of participants strongly imply that the decision-making process depicted in the theories is an accurate one.
The Quirks of Human Decisions, Explained
In both economics textbooks and public perceptions central banks are a fact of life. On the wall of my A-level economics classroom there was the Will Rogers quote “there have been three great inventions since the beginning of time: fire, the wheel, and central banking”, summarising how many economists view the institution. There is a widespread belief that there is something different about money which calls for a central authority to manage its operation, a view shared even by staunch free marketeers such as Milton Friedman. This belief is not without justification, since money underpins every transaction in a way that apples do not, but we should always be careful not to take existing institutions for granted and central banking is no exception. In this post I will look at the idea of private or free banking, where banks compete (and cooperate) to issue their own currency.
Whither Central Banks?
What narratives are underrepresented in the history of economic thought? How do economists account for freedom, justice, and democracy in non-Western cultures?
Decolonial Narratives in Economics
One method of economic modelling that has become increasingly popular in academia, government and the private sector is Agent Based Models, or ABM. These simulate the actions and interactions of thousands or even millions of people to try to understand the economy – for this reason ABM was once described to me as being “like Sim City without the graphics”. One advantage of ABM is that it is flexible, since you can choose how many agents there are (an agent just means some kind of 'economic decision maker' like a firm, consumer, worker or government); how they behave (do they use complicated or simple rules to make decisions?); as well as the environment they act in, then just run the simulation and see what happens as they interact over time.
Agents, agents everywhere
In this lecture, Beatrice Cherrier explains why it is worth to research the history of JEL codes. The changing relationship between theory and application and the rise and death of new economic topics in the XXth century through the successive revisions of the classification system economists use to publish, recruit and navigate their discipline.
Understanding the transformation of Economics through the history of JEL codes
An essay of the writing workshop on Nigeria’s Readiness for and the Effect of the Fourth Industrial Revolution
The Role of Women in the Fourth Industrial Revolution
In the history of the social sciences, few individuals have exerted as much influence as has Jeremy Bentham. His attempt to become “the Newton of morals” has left a marked impression upon the methodology and form of analysis that social sciences like economics and political science have chosen as modus operandi.
Bentham’s Two Sovereign Masters - Examining Bentham’s Influence on the Social Sciences
Dans cet entretien, Pauline Grégoire-Marchand, économiste à France Stratégie, présente sa note Le couple contribue-t-il encore à réduire les inégalités ?, où elle aborde des questions comme l'impact du travail des femmes ou l'homogamie.
L'impact du couple sur les inégalités de revenus
En inscrivant la soutenabilité environnementale dans la révision stratégique lancée début 2020 la Banque centrale européenne BCE a signalé qu elle prenait au sérieux les appels pour intégrer la politique monétaire dans la lutte contre le changement climatique et plus largement contre la crise écologique qui menace nos sociétés et …
Le rôle de la politique monétaire dans la transition écologique
Chercheuse au CNRS, Lauriane Mouysset s'attaque au défi de concilier économie et écologie pour concevoir un développement durable.
Pas si simple de faire un choix, lorsqu’il s’agit de penser en amont, à tous les avantages mais aussi aux conséquences qui vont en découler. Peut-être que la clé de tout choix se trouve sur les valeurs fondamentales, celles qui font nos sociétés.
Lauriane nous invite à réfléchir à la meilleure façon d’agir et de faire un bon choix face à la crise écologique.
Repenser le défi écologique
L'auteur interroge la compatibilité entre le système capitaliste avec les limites et frontières écologiques.
Le capitalisme est-il compatible avec les limites écologiques ?
Ce portrait de Ronald Coase brossé par Elodie bertrand chercheuse en histoire de la pensée économique permet de revenir sur son oeuvre avec un certain recul historique Sur la réception de ses travaux leurs sur interprétations et leur influence dans l économie de la deuxième moitié du XXème siècle en …
Ronald Coase, un siècle d’économie
If there’s one method economists have neglected the most, it’s qualitative research. Whereas economists favour mathematical models and statistics, qualitative research seeks to understand the world through intensive investigation of particular circumstances, which usually entails interviewing people directly about their experiences. While this may sound simple to quantitative types the style, purpose, context, and interpretation of an interview can vary widely. Because of this variety, I have written a longer post than usual on this topic rather than doing it a disservice. Having said that, examples of qualitative research in economics are sadly scant enough that it doesn’t warrant multiple posts. In this post I will introduce qualitative research in general with nods to several applications including the study of firm behaviour, race, Austrian economics, and health economics. More than usual I will utilise block quotes, which I feel is in the spirit of the topic.
Qualitative Methods in Economics: "You Can Observe a Lot Just by Watching"
The global financial crisis (GFC) led to increasing distrust in economic research and the economics profession, in the process of which the current state of economics and economic education in particular were heavily criticized. Against this background we conducted a study with undergraduate students of economics in order to capture their view of economic education.
What economics education is missing: The real world
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